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論文中文名稱:資料可靠度對颱洪時期QPESUMS及洪水預報影響之研究 [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
論文英文名稱:Effect of Data Reliability of The QPESUMS and Flood Forecasting During Typhoon Seasons [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
院校名稱:臺北科技大學
學院名稱:工程學院
系所名稱:工程學院工程科技博士班
畢業學年度:106
畢業學期:第二學期
出版年度:107
中文姓名:沈志全
英文姓名:Jhih-Cyuan Shen
研究生學號:97679001
學位類別:博士
語文別:中文
口試日期:2017/01/25
論文頁數:228
指導教授中文名:張哲豪
指導教授英文名:Che-Hao Chang
口試委員中文名:張哲豪;洪銘堅;湯有光;陳彥璋;李如晃;吳祥禎
中文關鍵詞:雷達降雨量不確定性降雨逕流水文系集預報
英文關鍵詞:QPESUMSRainfall RunoffUncertaintyEnsemble Prediction
論文中文摘要:水文氣象資料是國家重要的環境基本資料,其中又以降雨量與水位(流量)等監測資料應用與影響範圍最廣。但水文氣象資料等觀測資料內容,在資料的取得與分析方法上均有其有不確定性。而降雨資料的時間與空間分布不確定性,為影響現有水位流量資訊的推估與成果重要因素。因此為了評估降雨量對於水文量的影響性與差異,研究中參考水文系集預報實驗(Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment ,HEPEX)之架構與概念,應用不同降雨觀測資料來源與搭配時間與空間資料處理方式、並利用不同視覺化方式呈現,來減少分析資料產出後資訊溝通的不確定性。
利用雷達觀測降雨量與地面雨量站資料,在全台26條流域使用不同降雨資料來源,產出不同空間解析度與不同時間解析度的降雨量組合;並且結合系集資料處理與模式整合技術,進行各流域雨逕流模式銜接與運算工作。提供全台各流域水位站上游集水區系集降雨量與系集流量資訊,並且應用統計方式呈現不同系集展示方法,完整提供流域降雨量與水文量變化情況。使工程師可以透過圖形與數據有效了解降雨對於水文模式的流量推估成果之影響。同時透過自動化、作業化架構,使系統可以應用於平時水文分析統計工作與防汛應變作業期間定時供應最新水文氣象預報資訊。
論文英文摘要:Hydrological and meteorological data are important in the water conservancy construction and water resources policy. Engineer conducting analysis need a complete of the hydrological and meteorological data sources, data processing and step through a variety of time and space, provide a model for calculating and forecasting data input sources, and the calculated results of the data can be judged convert analysis of information. Sources in hydrometeorological in time and space distribution of the uncertainty of rainfall data and application of the results to estimate the impact of hydrological information of the important factors. The different model has its own characteristics. Ensemble prediction set data processing will be a variety of information sources and calculation results of fusion, in order to provide hydrological information content and trends. Therefore, the study use of different source, resolutions and lead time of precipitation data into the rainfall-runoff models. Through hydrologic ensemble prediction calculation of multiple sets of information. Description in different spatial resolutions, the impact on the flow of hydrological models estimate the streamflow analysis. And in response to the existing set of forecasts hydrology process under limited computing resources, hydrological and meteorological data supply services proposed in the appropriate spatial resolution and pattern of rainfall scale application recommendations.
論文目次:摘 要 ......................................................................................................................................... i
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... ii
致 謝 ......................................................................................................................................... iii
目 錄 ......................................................................................................................................... iv
表目錄 ....................................................................................................................................... vi
圖目錄 ..................................................................................................................................... viii
第一章 緒論 ............................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 前言 ............................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 研究背景與現況探討 ................................................................................................. 2
第二章 洪水預報系統與發展 .................................................................................................. 8
2.1 洪水預報系統 ............................................................................................................. 8
2.1.1 國外發展現況 ................................................................................................. 10
2.1.2 國內發展現況 ................................................................................................ 14
2.2 水文氣象資料來源 ................................................................................................... 15
2.2.1 降雨資料 ........................................................................................................ 17
2.2.2 水位流量資料 ................................................................................................ 23
2.2.3 降雨逕流模式 ................................................................................................ 30
2.3 流量系集預報作業流程與規劃 ............................................................................... 33
2.3.1 資料標準化 .................................................................................................... 33
2.3.2 模式銜接標準化 ............................................................................................ 36
2.3.3 自動化作業排程架構 .................................................................................... 41
第三章 系集預報系統實作 .................................................................................................... 44
3.1 實驗系統架構 ................................................................................................... 44
3.2 SOBEK_Sacramento 降雨逕流模式 ............................................................. 51
3.3 水文模式銜接 .................................................................................................... 53
第四章 降雨空間不確定性之影響 ........................................................................................ 58
4.1 地面雨量站與雷達觀測降雨量之差異 .................................................................... 58
4.1.1 降雨來源與事件 ............................................................................................. 58
4.1.2 整體測站分析成果 ........................................................................................ 62
4.1.3 高程分析成果 ................................................................................................ 75
4.1.4 地理位置分析成果 ......................................................................................... 85
4.2 流域集水區降雨推估方式說明 ............................................................................. 102
4.2.1 不同空間內插方式 ....................................................................................... 102
4.2.2 不同空間解析度 .......................................................................................... 105
4.2.3 不同時間解析度 .......................................................................................... 112
4.3 流域集水區平均降雨量推估 .................................................................................. 118
4.3.1 流域降雨量來源組合說明 .......................................................................... 118
4.2.2 流域平均降雨量成果 .................................................................................. 121
4.2.3 水位站上游集水區雨量推估 ...................................................................... 148
第五章 水文系集預報成果影響分析 .................................................................................. 173
5.1 系集成果探討 ......................................................................................................... 173
5.1.1 各流域計算成果 ........................................................................................... 173
5.1.2 降雨量與流量關聯性探討 .......................................................................... 193
5.2 水利氣象單位應用應用 ......................................................................................... 218
5.2.1 水文分析應用 ............................................................................................... 218
5.2.2 即時水文預報運算效能評估與建議 .......................................................... 220
第六章 結論與建議 ........................................................................................................ 223
6.1 結論 ......................................................................................................................... 223
6.2 建議 ......................................................................................................................... 224
參考文獻 ................................................................................................................................ 227
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論文全文使用權限:同意授權於2018-08-27起公開