現在位置首頁 > 博碩士論文 > 詳目
論文中文名稱:以非財務因素事件探討財務危機預警模型之研究 [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
論文英文名稱:A Study on Financial Crisis Prediction Model Using Non-Financial Factors [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
院校名稱:臺北科技大學
學院名稱:管理學院
系所名稱:高階管理碩士雙聯學位學程
畢業學年度:106
畢業學期:第二學期
出版年度:107
中文姓名:盧淑惠
英文姓名:Shu-Hui Lu
研究生學號:105C27509
學位類別:碩士
語文別:中文
口試日期:2018/06/29
論文頁數:57
指導教授中文名:林鳳儀
口試委員中文名:林鳳儀;葉清江;方文昌
中文關鍵詞:財務危機預警模型非財務因素
英文關鍵詞:Financial crisis prediction modelNon-financial factors
論文中文摘要:本篇論文研究主要以非財務性因素事件之公開資訊作為評估公司發生財務危機之可能,試圖使用該公開資訊,讓一般投資大眾可用來作為預測公司狀況並予以因應。有鑑於傳統之財務危機預警模型皆多半以財務數據作為建構,然而一般投資大眾通常非為財務人員,要完全了解財務報表上的數據與內容並不容易。本論文選取2017年度公開發行公司有發生公開發行公司信用指標定義之違約情事者作為樣本,利用公開資訊觀測站上財務報表資訊,根據傳統之財務危機預警模型計算其近十年之財務風險指數,爾後由公開資訊觀測站上重大訊息與公告中得知其近十年發生之重大公告事件。研究結果顯示公司如有發生非財務因素事件時,包括更換公司名稱、更換公司營業地址、更換主要經理人如董事長、總經理、財務主管或會計主管等、或更換財務報告簽證會計師(除會計師事務所內部組織調整外),其依照財務危機預警模型所計算之財務風險指數亦顯示公司在該年度之財務狀況不佳,故可佐證當企業發生上述非財務因素事件時,可能顯示該公司營運狀況不佳。對一般投資大眾而言,非僅能研讀財務報表來判斷公司是否有財務危機風險,亦得以藉由觀察公司所發佈之重大訊息來作為判斷公司營運狀況之依據。
論文英文摘要:This paper mainly uses public information of non-financial factors to assess the companys financial crisis. It attempts to utilize readily available public information so that the general public can use it to predict the companys situation. In view of the fact that most of the traditional financial crisis prediction models are based on financial data, it is not always easy for the general public to fully understand the data and contents of the financial statements. This paper selects the defaulters defined by Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI) in the year of 2017 as samples, uses the public financial information to calculate its financial risk index for the past ten years based on the traditional financial crisis prediction model and then obtains material events in the last decade announced on the Market Observation Post System (MOPS). This research indicates that if the company has changed its company name or business address, replaced its management team such as chairman, general manager, financial or accounting head, or replaced its accountant firm (except for the internal transfer made by the accountant firm), its financial risk index based on the traditional financial crisis prediction model also shows that the company is in poor financial status during the timing of above non-financial events occurred. For the general public, it is not only possible to study the financial statements to identity whether the company has financial crisis risk, but also to observe the companys material events announced in public.
論文目次:中文摘要……………………………………………………………………………….i
英文摘要………………………………………………………………………………ii
誌謝………………………………………………………………………………...iii
目錄…………………………………………………………………………………iv
表目錄………………………………………………………………………………….v
圖目錄………………………………………………………………………………vi
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………..1
1.1 研究動機………………………………………………………………..1
1.2 研究目的………………………………………………………………..2
1.3 研究流程…………………………………………………………….3
第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………………………………..5
2.1 財務危機之定義………………………………………………………5
2.2 財務危機預警模型……………………………………………………6
2.3 非財務因素事件……………………………………………………….9
第三章 研究方法…………………………………………………………………..11
3.1 研究對象及研究期間…………………………………………………11
3.2 研究方法……………………………………………………………….14
第四章 研究結果……………………………………………………………………17
4.1 樣本公司沿革……………………………………………………….17
4.2 依財務危機預警模型計算之風險指數………………………………19
4.3 非財務因素事件與財務危機預警模型之比較………………….....29
4.4 未發生非財務因素事件公司之佐證…………………………………49
第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………………54
5.1 研究結論……………………………………………………………..54
5.2 研究建議……………………………………………………………...55
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………..56
論文參考文獻:1. 尹賢瑜、葉立仁、游雅璇 (2015),建構企業財務危機預警模型-考慮財務與公司治理因素,《德明學報》,第三十九卷第二期,頁37-58。
2. 林左裕、鄭瑞昌、柯俊禎、陳毓芬 (2013),公司治理與財務危機關聯性之研究,《評價學報》,第六期,頁1-26。
3. 林英星、李勝榮、林信文、康文姿 (2013),企業資訊揭露與財務危機預警關聯性之研究-以台灣上市電子業為例,《全球商業經營管理學報》,第五期,頁167-178。
4. 陳建宏、謝佩綺 (2016),企業資訊揭露、公司治理與財務危機預警之實證研究-以台灣上市上櫃電子業為例,《財金論文叢刊》,第二十五期,頁93-104。
5. 黃振豐、呂紹強 (2000),企業財務危機預警模式之研究-以財務及非財務因素構建,《當代會計》,第一卷第一期,頁19-40。
6. Almamy, J., J. Aston, L. N. Ngwa, 2016, An evaluation of Altmans Z-score using cash flow ratio to predict corporate failure amid the recent financial crisis: Evidence from the UK, Journal of Corporate Finance 36, 278-285.
7. Altman, E. I., 1968, Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy, Journal of Finance 23(4), 589-609.
8. Altman, E. I., R. Haldeman and P. Narayanan, 1977, Zeta Analysis: A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations, Journal of Banking & Finance 1(1), 29-54.
9. Altman, E. I., 2000, Predicting financial distress of companies: revisiting the Z-Score and ZETA® models, ch. 17, p. 428-456 in Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, Edward Elgar Publishing.
10. Bhasin, M. L., 2017, Creative Accounting Practices at Satyam: The Fraud Methodology Revealed, Amity Business Review 18, 127-153.
11. Charalambakis, E. C., I. Garrett, 2018, On corporate financial distress prediction: What can we learn from private firms in a developing economy? Evidence from Greece, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting; New York, 1-25.
12. Droj, L. and I. G. Țara, 2016, Applicability of Financial Early Waring Indicators for The Main Utility and Petroleum Companies in Romania, Annals of the University of Oradea: Economic Science, 364-371.
13. Edina, K., 2014, Analysis of Romanian Small and Medium Enterprises’ Bankruptcy Risk, Annals of the University of Oradea: Economic Science, 928-937.
14. Jayasekera, R., 2018, Prediction of company failure: Past, present and promising directions for the future, International Review of Financial Analysis 55, 196-208.
15. Lious, N. A. T., P. G. Felix and M. A. C. Cibran, 2016, The effectiveness of the Spanish banking reform application of Altman’s Z-Score, Risk governance & control: financial markets & institutions 6(4), 40-47.
16. McGee, J. A. and J. Ralph Byington, 2017, The C-Suite and Fraud, The Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance 28(4), 53-57.
17. Ohlson, J. A., 1980, Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy, Journal of Accounting Research 18(1), 109-131.
18. Teti, E., A. Dell’Acqua and M. Brambilla, 2012, Bankruptcy predictors during the financial crisis. A study of Italian SME’s, 33.
19. Wilson, A. C. and Kimberly G. Key, 2013, Enron Audit Failures: A Compromise of Ethics?, Feature Edition 2013(3), 50-68.
20. Wu, C. Y., 2004, Using non-financial information to predict bankruptcy: A study of public companies in Taiwan, International Journal of Management 21, 194-202.
論文全文使用權限:同意授權