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論文中文名稱:應用展望理論建立政府行使介入權之分析模型 [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
論文英文名稱:The Analytic Model for Government Exercises Step-In Right Based on Prospect Theory [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
院校名稱:臺北科技大學
學院名稱:工程學院
系所名稱:土木與防災研究所
中文姓名:王琮立
英文姓名:Tsung-Ling Wang
研究生學號:93428037
學位類別:碩士
語文別:中文
口試日期:2006-07-24
論文頁數:64
指導教授中文名:林正平
口試委員中文名:姚乃嘉;黃玉霖
中文關鍵詞:介入權BOT展望理論
英文關鍵詞:Step-In RightBOTProspect Theory
論文中文摘要:介入權(Step-In Right)制度,先後被諸多國家納入BOT契約或相關法令,期望藉由政府或銀行接管特許公司之方式,緩和風險對於環境、公共利益以及契約延續性之影響。然而就執行層面而言,BOT計畫之興建過程或營運績效,未能滿足政府與民眾期待之案例時有所聞,因此諸多對於BOT制度之疑慮便油然而生,其中介入權制度是否能充分發揮,降低風險對於公眾利益之影響,遂成一項不容忽視之議題。
由於聯貸銀行接管特許公司之意願,將直接影響介入權是否能充分發揮其避免特許合約驟然終止之效益。因此本研究首先藉由財務理論,建立政府、聯貸銀行與特許公司三者之財務關係,並依此建構政府行使介入權之評估準則,以及政府與銀行之接管指標,以做為政府分析聯貸銀行接管意願之基礎。其次,透過展望理論之編輯與評估,分析聯貸銀行之風險偏好行為。當機率小於1時(P<1),銀行具有風險規避之特性,存在拒絕持續貸款以及放棄接管之可能性;當極低機率時(P<0.1),銀行具有風險偏好之特性,存在願意持續提供貸款,以及支付更高接管成本之可能性,以避免確定損失之發生。最後,整合上述介入權評估指標與聯貸銀行決策偏好二者之關係,說明政府於聯貸銀行主觀偏好下之介入權行使時機與方式,期望得以緩和風險對於公眾利益之影響。
論文英文摘要:The Step-In Right system has been adopted by numerous countries to list in BOT contracts or relevant codes and regulations. It is expected that by means of the government or banks taking over the concessionary companies, it can appease the influence on environment, public interest and contract continuation caused by risk. However, for the executive management ranks, we oftentimes heard the cases that the establishment, process or management performance of BOT plans cannot meet the expectation of the government and the general public. Thus, there are naturally numerous doubts posed on BOT systems. Whether the Step-in Right can be sufficiently exerted and the situation to reduce the influence on the public interest caused by risk shall become the critical issue never allowable for ignorance.
The willing for loan-alliance banks to take over the concessionary companies shall directly cause influence on whether Step-in Right can sufficiently exert its effect to avoid the sudden termination on concession contracts. Thus, within this research, we firstly adopt the finance theory to establish the financial relation among the government, loan-alliance banks and the concessionary companies. Also, based on the said relation, we can establish the assessment guideline and the assessment indicators for the government to implement Step-in Right as the baselines to analyze the willing for loan-alliance banks to take over. Secondary, by means of editing and evaluation of the prospect theory, we can analyze the risk attitude of loan-alliance banks. When the possibility is below 1 (P<0.1), banks are featured with risk aversion. It exists in the possibility to refuse continuous loan and forsake the take-over. When the possibility is extremely low (P<0.1), banks are featured with risk seeking. It exists in the willing allowable for continuous loan and accepting the take-over at higher cost to avoid the dead-loss. Finally, we integrate the relation between aforesaid said 2 issues of both Step-in Right evaluation indicators and the decision-making attitude of loan-alliance banks to explain the government's adoption timing and methods of Step-in Right against the subjective attitude held by loan-alliance banks. It is expected to appease the influence on the public interest caused by risk.
論文目次:中文摘要 i
英文摘要 iii
誌謝 v
目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 ix
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 研究範圍 3
1.3 研究流程 3
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2.1 介入權之定義與目的 4
2.2 介入權之執行基礎 5
2.3 介入權之保障對象 7
第三章 財務理論與介入權之對策機制 9
3.1 財務理論之概述 10
3.2 政府行使介入權之評估準則 10
3.3 風險因子與介入權對策機制之關係 13
3.3.1 完工風險與介入權評估準則之關係 13
3.3.2 完工風險與介入權評估指標之關係 16
3.3.3 成本風險與介入權對策機制之關係 19
第四章 展望理論與介入權對策機制之分析 23
4.1 展望理論之概述 23
4.1.1 展望理論之背景 23
4.1.2 展望理論之發展 26
4.2 聯貸銀行參與BOT計畫之偏好分析 32
4.2.1 聯貸銀行展望價值之編輯 32
4.2.2 聯貸銀行展望價值之評估 37
第五章 案例分析 42
5.1 成本風險與政府行使介入權之對策機制 42
5.2 聯貸銀行之偏好分析 44
第六章 結論與建議 48
6.1 結論 48
6.2 建議 49
參考文獻 51
附錄
A 台灣高鐵現金流量表 53
B 聯貸銀行展望值計算表 58
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