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論文中文名稱:土地利用變遷對非點源污染負荷之影響 [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
論文英文名稱:Effect of Land Use Change on Pollution Load of Nonpoint Source [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
院校名稱:臺北科技大學
學院名稱:工程學院
系所名稱:土木與防災研究所
畢業學年度:97
出版年度:98
中文姓名:彭榮達
英文姓名:Jung-Ta Peng
研究生學號:96428066
學位類別:碩士
語文別:中文
口試日期:2009-06-23
論文頁數:90
指導教授中文名:林鎮洋
指導教授英文名:Jen-Yang Lin
口試委員中文名:謝政道;朱子偉;陳起鳳
口試委員英文名:Cheng-Daw Hsieha
中文關鍵詞:非點源污染單位面積輸出係數法馬可夫鏈QUAL2KGoogle Earth
英文關鍵詞:Nonpoint Source PollutionExport CoefficientMarkov ChainQUAL2KGoogle Earth
論文中文摘要:探討非點源污染的產生,受到水文變化、土地利用強度及地形等因子影響甚巨,而目前對於非點源污染之研究,大多侷限於過去非點源污染量之推估,缺乏對未來可能產生之非點源污染進行評估。有鑑於此,本研究提出一個考量土地利用變遷(Land Use Change)對非點源輸出影響之定率(Deterministic)分析方式,並評估非點源污染輸出增加對河川水質總磷濃度的變化;以集水區尺度,面積24.13平方公里之翡翠水庫上游金瓜寮溪集水區為研究區,以馬可夫鍊(Markov Chain)求得目標年2052年之土地利用變化情形,利用單位面積輸出係數法(Export Coefficient Meathod)推估總氮(Total Nitrogen, TN)與總磷(Total Phosphorus, TP)兩項水質指標之現在與未來負荷量,再應用美國環保署發展之QUAL2K模式,建立金瓜寮溪河川水質模式,模擬研究區2004年與2052年之土地利用、點源及非點源污染負荷狀態下,河川總磷濃度變化,以評估土地利用變遷對河川水質之影響,最後將前述成果整體呈現於Google Erath平台。
研究結果顯示:在土地利用百分比方面,農地面積由2004年之6.83%,逐期增加至2052年的9.04%;林地面積由2004年之90.66%,逐期減少至2052年的86.71%;其餘土地利用型態百分比亦有成長趨勢。非點源污染負荷量方面,研究區內總氮負荷量,由2004年之10,694 kg,逐期增加,2052年總氮負荷量將達到12,149 kg;研究區內總磷負荷量,從2004年之1,081 kg,逐期增加至2052年,總磷負荷量將達到1,335 kg。土地利用變遷對河川水質影響評估方面,若2052年土地利用變遷造成流達率提高及總磷負荷量增加,將造成河川水質中總磷濃度提高,模擬2004年流達率為0.15與2052年流達率為0.20,2052年河川中之總磷濃度將較2004年提高7.79 µg/L超過甲類水體標準、模擬終點之總磷濃度升高比率為47%;模擬2004年流達率為0.15與2052年流達率為0.25,2052年河川中之總磷濃度將較2004年提高13.76 µg/L、模擬終點之總磷濃度升高比率為81%。模擬尖峰流量方面,本文設計重現期距2年、降雨延時2小時之暴雨強度,2052年之尖峰流量較2004年增加2.79 cms,增加率為10.47%。
論文英文摘要:The generation of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is highly related to the hydrology, landuse, and terrain characteristics. Previous studies of NPS pollution were mostly concentrating on the estimate of the past loads, lacking the future load estimation. Therefore, the present research proposes a methodology to estimate the future NPS loads based on landuse change and to evaluate the impacts of future NPS loads on the concentration of the total phosphorus (TP). The case study of JiGuaLiao watershed is of 24.13 km2 surface area, located in the upper stream in Feitsui Reservoir, the source of drinking water for Taipei city. This research used Markov Chain to simulate landuse changes for the next 48 years based on the landuse data from 1998 to 2004. Meanwhile, the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads for the next 48 years were also calculated by the Export Coefficient method. Further, the water quality of the JiGuaLiao creek from 2004 to 2052 can be assessed by the QUAL2K model, developed by the Environmental Protection Agency, United States (USEPA). The above results can be visualized in Google Earth platform.
The results showed that, with respect to the landuse change, the proportion of agricultural land will steadily increase from 6.83% in 2004 to 9.04% in 2052. However, the proportion of forest land will gradually decrease from 90.66% in 2004 to 86.71% in 2052. Other landuses will also tend to increase in the same period.
With respect to the NPS pollution, the annual TN loads in the study area will steadily increase from 10,694 kg in 2004 to 12,149 kg in 2052; meanwhile, the annual TP loads will also increase from 1,081 kg in 2004 to 1,335 kg in 2052.
With respect to the impacts of landuse change on water quality, the study showed that, supposing the delivery ratio are 0.15 and 0.2 in 2004 and 2052 respectively, the TP concentration at the river outlet will additionally increase 7.79 µg/L from 2004 to 2052, which is 47% increase in concentration. In case that the delivery ratio are 0.15 and 0.25 in 2004 and 2052 respectively, the TP concentration at the river outlet will additionally increase 13.76 µg/L from 2004 to 2052, which is 81% increase in concentration. Based on the storm of 2-year recurrence interval and 2-hour duration, the results showed that the peak flow in 2052 will increase 2.79 cms compared with that of 2004, which is 10.47% increase.
論文目次:中文摘要 i
英文摘要 iii
誌謝 v
目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究內容與流程 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2.1 非點源污染物輸出之來源 4
2.1.1 單位污染負荷相關研究 6
2.1.2 土地利用與水質變化關係 10
2.2 非點源污染推估 11
2.3 土地利用變遷 16
2.3.1 馬可夫鍊模型預測未來土地利用 17
2.4 最佳管理作業 19
2.5 最大日負荷 20
第三章 研究區介紹 23
3.1 自然環境 23
3.1.1 地理位置 23
3.1.2 地形 24
3.1.3 土壤與地質 26
3.1.4 氣候與水文 28
3.1.5 水質監測 31
3.2 人文環境 34
3.2.1 土地利用與人口 34
3.2.2 產業經濟 37
3.2.3 污水處理系統 37
第四章 研究方法 38
4.1 未來土地利用分析及預測 38
4.1.1 馬可夫鍊模型 41
4.1.2 馬可夫特性檢定 42
4.2 土地利用變遷對非點源負荷之影響 43
4.2.1 時序性單位面積輸出係數法 44
4.2.2 單位面積輸出係數選用 46
4.3土地利用變遷對河川水質與流量影響 46
4.3.1 河川水質模式建立 47
4.4 成果展示 60
第五章 結果與討論 61
5.1 未來土地利用分析及預測結果 61
5.2 土地利用變遷對非點源負荷之影響 64
5.3 土地利用變遷對河川水質與流量影響分析 69
5.3.1 河川水質模式驗證 69
5.3.2 流達率變化對河川水質濃度影響 69
5.3.3 土地利用變遷對河川水質與流量影響 72
5.3.4 計算效能評估 76
5.4 成果展示 76
5.4.1 輸出係數展示 76
5.4.2 二維網格輸出係數展示 77
5.4.3 三維網格輸出係數展示 78
5.5 應用討論 80
第六章 結論與建議 81
6.1 結論 81
6.2 建議 82
參考文獻 83
附錄A QUAL2K模式驗證 91
附錄B 中英名詞對照 94
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