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論文中文名稱:集水區定量降水估計誤差對於水位模擬影響之研究 [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
論文英文名稱:Study on Impact of Watershed QPE Error to River Stage Simulation [以論文名稱查詢館藏系統]
院校名稱:臺北科技大學
學院名稱:工程學院
系所名稱:土木與防災研究所
畢業學年度:100
出版年度:100
中文姓名:江志鵬
英文姓名:Jhih-Peng Jiang
研究生學號:97428063
學位類別:碩士
語文別:中文
口試日期:2011-10-17
論文頁數:105
指導教授中文名:張哲豪
口試委員中文名:楊元森;洪銘堅;吳祥禎
中文關鍵詞:定量降水估計定量降水預報水位預報模式水文水理模式
英文關鍵詞:Quantitative Precipitation EstimationQuantitative Precipitation Forecastflood forecasting modelsHydrologic/Hydraulic Simulation Models
論文中文摘要:現階段防洪預警作業技術,可藉由即時水文氣象觀測或預測資料內容,銜接水文水理模式,模擬計算得到現況與預測河川水位高程,如水利署目前已正式上線的「洪水早期預警系統」。就系統之預測準確度而言,大多數預測水位站未來一小時的水位高程誤差可以在 20~50 公分以內;但少部分預測水位站預測準確度仍待改善。預測準確度影響主要來自水位預報模式過程中,文氣象觀測、預報資料等輸入因子,本研究擬以其因子建立水位模擬之誤差分析流程,作為未來水位預報模式影響評估之開端。
在預報上為盡可能掌握水文氣象資料高變異性,目前在世界主要進行防洪測預報之先進國家,在水文氣象資料來源上均採用多種水文氣象資料來源的結合,以增加水情演算與推斷的可靠度。由於多種資料內容在輸出格式、空間維度、與時間維度等,都存有相當差異,整合上也就面臨資料格式與維度處理課題。故本研究將誤差分析流程分為觀測降雨之敏感度,以及預報降雨之不確定性。
本研究在水文氣象資料處理過程中,分析觀測降雨數值於空間轉換與內插、數值精度等差異,對於集水區平均降雨量以及河川水位高程計算時之影響,藉以評估觀測降雨數值、空間反應於水位計算時之敏感度。在考慮預報降雨本身不確定性下,本研究針對2008卡玫基颱風及2010凡那比颱風之降雨事件,採用蒙地卡羅法模擬定量降水預報,分析模擬定量降水預報對於水位預報模式之影響。
論文英文摘要:The current/forecasting water level can be calculated through the connection between instant hydrology and meteorology observation or data forecasting and hy-drologic/hydraulic simulation models in the flood prevention and precaution tech-nology at the present stage, such as the online “Flood Early Warning System" pro-vided by the Water Resources Agency. As for the forecasting accuracy, the change in the water level within one hour of the reading being submitted from forecasting stations with the highest readings can fall in the range of 20 to 50 centimeters, but the accuracy of some of the forecasting stations is awaiting improvement. The fac-tors that may influence the accuracy primarily comes from the process of water level forecasting patterns and the input factors like hydrographic and meteorology obser-vation and forecasting data. This study plans to use the factors to build up a error analytic process to water level simulation in order to create a threshold for evaluat-ing the impact of water level forecasting patterns in the future.
In order to control the high variability of hydrographic and meteorology data from the forecasting, within the countries which carry out flood prevention forecasts, all adopt the combination of a variety of hydrographic and meteorology data of their resources in order to increase the reliability of the calculation and to forecast the hydrology. Due to the differences in outputting format and space and time dimen-sions between multiple types of data, there will be some problems when facing inte-gration. Therefore, this study divides bias analyzing processes into the sensitivity of precipitation observation and the uncertainty of precipitation forecasting.
In hydrographic and meteorology data processing, the study analyzes the vari-ants to space transforming, interpolation and number accuracy in the observation of precipitation number analysis, and tries to evaluate the the sensitivity of water level calculations of space and precipitation observation reactions. In considering the un-certainty of precipitation forecasting itself, this study adopts the Monte Carlo Algo-rithm to simulate Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for the precipitation cases of Typhoon KALMAEGI, 2008 and FANAPI, 2010, to analyze the impact of simulat-ing Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to water level forecasting patterns.
論文目次:中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
致 謝 iv
目 錄 v
表目錄 vii
圖目錄 ix
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 文獻回顧 3
1.3 本文架構 6
第二章 定量降水估計誤差 9
2.1 資料來源與格式 9
2.2 預報降雨不確定性 10
2.2.1 資料模擬 11
2.2.2 模擬方法 11
2.3 觀測降雨數值及空間敏感度 14
2.3.1 網格式雨量解析度 14
2.3.2 雨量數值精度 16
第三章 水位模擬影響實驗設計 18
3.1 研究區域簡介 18
3.2 颱風期間降雨事件 20
3.2.1 凡那比颱風 21
3.2.2 卡玫基颱風 22
3.3 集水區平均降雨計算 23
3.3.1 資料處理工具簡介 23
3.3.2 集水區平均降雨 25
3.3.3 降雨偏差比率取樣 32
3.4 資料應用與分析 43
3.4.1 降雨分析 44
3.4.2 模擬流量分析 46
3.4.3 模擬水位分析 48
第四章 成果探討 50
4.1 降雨分析 50
4.1.1 定量降水預報不確定性 50
4.1.2 定量降水估計空間及數值敏感度 67
4.2 模擬流量分析 80
4.2.1 定量降水預報不確定性 80
4.2.2 定量降水估計空間及數值敏感度 80
4.3 模擬水位分析 87
4.3.1 定量降水預報不確定性 87
4.3.2 定量降水估計空間及數值敏感度 89
第五章 結論與建議 99
5.1 結論 99
5.2 建議 100
參考文獻 102
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